The coffee plant: the current state and future of the plant

Unsurprisingly, coffee trees are in peril, and global coffee production has far exceeded demand for several years. This situation was officially announced in 2015 at the first World Coffee Producing Countries Forum, held in Medellín, Colombia.

Coffee will not be spared by climate change and rising temperatures, as it is sensitive to even the slightest temperature variations. If the warming trend continues, more than half of the world's arable land will be lost by 2050. For the past three years, coffee production has not kept pace with demand; we are all surviving thanks to the surpluses from the 2015 and 2016 harvests. Since 2012, consumption of this beverage has been growing by more than 1.3% annually. Global coffee consumption is increasing and represents 255 kg of coffee per second, or 9.4 million tons of coffee annually (that's 134 million 60 kg bags of coffee!). Furthermore, 2.5 billion people consume it every day.

It's important to know that the coffee you all cherish, Arabica, requires a cool, shady environment, found in mountainous regions, for optimal growth. Excessively hot temperatures hinder the aromatic development of the species and the production of its sugars and amino acids. The problem is that with rising temperatures, these plants must climb higher to survive and find this environment, which reduces the land available for their cultivation. Coffees grown at higher altitudes, on the other hand, often produce fruitier, grand cru coffees, commonly known in the industry! Thus, coffees once renowned as specialty coffees will have to leave certain regions to make way for Arabica… so goodbye to some of the richest terroirs in the world!

The market will have no choice but to adjust, and this impasse will require two solutions: adaptation and mitigation of climate impacts. This involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions (of course!) and changing coffee-growing sites.

1. Hybridization

This is where World Coffee Research (WCR) comes in, which I had the immense privilege of visiting twice at one of its facilities in El Salvador. Their solution and their quest are complex: they need to build a whole new generation of coffee varieties, more resistant, more acclimatized: F1 hybrids.

What is an F1 hybrid?

These are varieties created through genetic crossbreeding of different "parents." On one hand, a hardy plant is chosen, and on the other, a wilder, native plant with rich and complex aromas. These varieties must primarily combine organic traits aimed at high disease resistance, increased yield per coffee tree, resistance to climatic variations, and, of course, the profile of the best cup.  A coffee that is. No small challenge!

Currently, some 50 new crosses are being tested at WCR hubs. Researchers there are analyzing the climates of numerous plantations worldwide and are working to define the five main climate zones for coffee cultivation. They will then test 35 varieties that have shown the most significant performance in 23 different countries. Following this, they will analyze their interaction with the environment to better understand why and how they adapt to certain extreme conditions or those deviating from their usual environment.

2. Environmental protection

These new plant varieties will make no sense tomorrow or in the near future if nothing is done to protect the environment in which coffee plants grow.

One of the most promising solutions lies in agroforestry (a method of farming agricultural land with trees that offers several advantages in terms of soil protection). The goal is to return the world's largest coffee trees to their original terroir, to humid areas in the shade of forests. For many years, humans have made the mistake of cultivating coffee trees in full sun for short-term yields. This intensive method stresses the plants, and the fertilizers used for this type of cultivation are reaching their limit. By 2050, the areas of Latin America dedicated to coffee could be reduced by nearly 60% if nothing is done. Disaster is looming. Demand is growing, supply is dwindling… there's no secret: your cup of coffee will soon be scarce.

Valérie Verhoef